These are some great points. I definitely agree that ESPN/Turner/Etc carry more risk. But the flip-side wasn’t as apparent to me until I started seeing the size of these players deals and reading about why they were going up as much as they were.
I think you’re right that Adam Silver is smart enough to know all of this — and I suspect he’s the one who wanted to spread out the increase to blunt the effect. But he couldn’t convince the Players Union, so can he convince the owners to alter things down the road as we near the re-up time for the TV deals? We’ll see!